Thursday, November 14, 2013

The real hype cycle

According to Gartner, all technology goes through a hype cycle in the marketplace as it matures.  It may be one of their most popular analysis pages (that or their 'magic quadrant' work).

But this isn't quite right.  Everyone that's been in IT long enough knows that almost every technology (no matter how innovative) has its roots in some other idea/technology years before. It may have a new name. A new use case. A new distribution channel. But the technology just isn't that new.

So, I conjecture that the 'true' hype cycle doesn't end in the "Plateau of Productivity" but instead it is truly a cycle...with each iteration feeding into a NEW technology trigger (anywhere from 5-20 years down the line):

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